:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2341Z from Region 2002 (S19E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar,
12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at
08/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 146
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  010/012-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/10