:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/0012Z from Region 1982 (S11, L=205). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04
Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
417 km/s at 01/2245Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 33 pfu at 01/2220Z. Electrons greater than
2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05
Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (03 Mar), have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Mar) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     70/30/20
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 161
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05