:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1333Z from Region 1982 (S11W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03
Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
01/0634Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 88 pfu at 28/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Mar), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/50/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 165
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05