:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1501Z from Region 1982 (S10W49). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28
Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at
25/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1255Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1725Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 26/0010Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (27
Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     70/40/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 178
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  014/018-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/35/25