:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 171
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25