:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0610Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb,
26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
524 km/s at 23/0544Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/1414Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/1434Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2779 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 172
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  009/010-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/05