:Product: 0222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/1550Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 22/0120Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1760 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Feb). III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 163 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 016/020-009/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/10/10 Minor Storm 20/01/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/20/20