:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/1117Z from Region 1976 (S13W94). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb,
24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 21/0633Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0818Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 157
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 155/165/170
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  027/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  015/023-016/020-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           20/20/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/20