:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
20/0756Z from Region 1976 (S14W82). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb,
23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 743 km/s at 20/0440Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/0323Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/0507Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22
pfu at 20/0925Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    35/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 156
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 155/160/165
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  030/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  025/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  015/020-013/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/40