:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/0201Z from Region 1982 (S11E44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb,
22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 546 km/s at 19/1747Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0658Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 19/0358Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 19/1515Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Feb, 22
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    30/35/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 158
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 160/165/170
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  035/053
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/010-015/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/30