:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0133Z from Region 1976 (S15W56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb,
21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 18/1019Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2057Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    45/35/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 151
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  006/005-006/005-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/50