:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0926Z from Region 1977 (S10W02). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on day one (17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 438 km/s at 16/0001Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 16/0403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 15/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 429 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb). III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 60/45/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 154 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 150/145/135 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 25/05/05