:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0140Z from Region 1974 (S07W25). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at
12/2151Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/0904Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 13/1353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1686 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (16 Feb). The increased activity is associated with the
anticipated arrival of the CMEs observed on 11 and 12 Feb.

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 167
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  015/025-028/040-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           25/40/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/75/55