:Product: 0212RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 12/0425Z from Region 1974 (S13W12). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at 12/0327Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 678 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (14 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (15 Feb). III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Feb 160 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-015/025-028/040 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/40/35 Minor Storm 01/25/40 Major-severe storm 01/05/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 15/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/60/75