:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/2331Z from Region 1967 (S13W89). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb,
13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
562 km/s at 10/2027Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/2231Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0203Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 161
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 160/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05