:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/1617Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (10 Feb) and likely to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 496 km/s at 09/2006Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/1039Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1236Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 721
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 169
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  019/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/05