:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1833Z from Region 1967 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (09 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (10 Feb)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 08/0819Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/0010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/2201Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    60/40/10
Class X    20/05/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 172
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 160/145/140
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    45/25/05