:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/0456Z from Region 1967 (S13W64). Region 1968 (N13W59) also produced
an M1/1n at 07/1029 UTC. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Feb,
09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
464 km/s at 06/2352Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1853Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2043Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (10
Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    60/60/40
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 178
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 175/165/155
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  012/015-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/25