:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 07 1645 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/0431Z from Region 1968 (N08W48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
465 km/s at 06/0512Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0218Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0831Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(09 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 191
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 190/185/180
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  007/008-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/45
COMMENT: CORRECTED FOR ERRORS IN 10.7 cm FLUX FORECAST