:Product: 0205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1620Z from Region 1967 (S12W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07
Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
05/2054Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0541Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2048Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 194
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 198/195/190
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/25