:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/0400Z from Region 1967 (S12W24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06
Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
04/2055Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0203Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 188
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 185/180/180
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05