:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0723Z from Region 1967 (S13E16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 Feb) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and
three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
01/1923Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/1954Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1927Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    75/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 177
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 180/180/185
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  013/005-010/018-006/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    45/25/05