:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
30/1611Z from Region 1967 (S14E41). It also produced a Type II (2161
km/s) radio emission, a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a coronal mass ejection
which may have an Earth-directed component.  Analysis is underway. 
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 30/0544Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0203Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02
Feb). However, the potential for a glancing blow as early as Day 2 (01
Feb) from the CME described above could push the geomagnetic field to
unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for a minor (G1) storm
period.  Well refrain from adding that to this forecast until after we
have examined the WSA-Enlil model output.

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 161
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 165/170/175
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/012-006/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05