:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2 event observed at
28/2216Z from Region 1967 (S12E67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 530 km/s at
29/0903Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/2225Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0708Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 156
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  013/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/05
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    40/25/05