:Product: 0128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/2210Z from Region 1967 (S14E76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
28/2046Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/1800Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/1603Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 157
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 165/170/175
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  007/010-012/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/25