:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/0211Z from Region 1967 (S15E75). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan,
30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at
26/2111Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2018Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2034Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (29 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 144
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 150/160/170
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  005/005-007/010-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/25/40