:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 24/1712Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1823Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0331Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 136
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/25