:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1905Z from Region 1955 (S14W18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan,
25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
629 km/s at 22/0744Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/2121Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2009Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 143
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05