:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0220Z from Region 1959 (S24E44). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan,
23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
20/2035Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1747Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 137
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05