:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
17/1608Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan,
20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 393 km/s at
16/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1549Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 357 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 129
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/05/05