:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/1541Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
15/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 337 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and
quiet levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 121
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 120/118/115
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  009/012-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/05
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/30/05