:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
646 km/s at 14/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 126
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  006/005-011/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/35/25