:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1633Z from Region 1953 (S18W13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
922 km/s at 13/0724Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1006Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0225Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
12/2335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    50/10/10
Class X    15/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 143
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05