:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/1310Z from Region 1944 (S10W54). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 11/0752Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2019Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/1836Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31 pfu at
10/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jan).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     50/50/50
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 166
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 165/170/160
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    45/25/05