:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at
09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3073 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/90/70
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 184
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  025/040-017/015-012/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/45/35
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    50/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/35
Major-severe storm    85/50/45