:Product: 0108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event observed at
08/0347Z from Region 1947 (N11W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10
Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
398 km/s at 07/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2017Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2352Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 972 pfu at
08/2030Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (11 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/99
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 195
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 195/195/195
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  041/073-025/041-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/45
Minor Storm           35/30/10
Major-severe storm    50/50/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/15/30
Major-severe storm    90/85/50