:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1832Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 07/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1656Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1555Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34 pfu at
06/2200Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 07/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2692 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), active to major
storm levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/99
PCAF       Red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 237
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 195/195/190
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/012-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    60/25/05