:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/0019Z from Region 1944 (S09E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
05/2123Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 42 pfu at 06/1600Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 06/1005Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 618 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07
Jan), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Jan) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/70/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 204
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 200/195/195
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  015/018-012/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/15
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/60/25