:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
04/1946Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06
Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at
04/0054Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2222Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 879 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07
Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 215
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 215/220/220
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05