:Product: 0103RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Jan 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/2218Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 655 km/s at 02/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1452Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 990 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan Class M 75/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jan 182 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/05/05