FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 364
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5285 (N22W64)
PRODUCED ANOTHER M-CLASS FLARE WITH A TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 5292
(S18W22) ALSO PRODUCED A SMALL M-CLASS FLARE. BOTH REGIONS ARE
SLOWLY DECAYING IN MOST ASPECTS, ALTHOUGH REGION 5292 IS STILL
SLIGHTLY COMPLICATED MAGNETICALLY. THE OVERALL BACKGROUND FLUX
VALUES ARE DROPPING FOR BOTH X-RAY AND 10CM THRESHOLDS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 5285 AND 5292 PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HIGH ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT VERY EARLY ON 28 DEC
WITH ACCOMPANYING TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS. INTERMITTENT STORM
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 DEC-01 JAN
CLASS M    60/55/50
CLASS X    10/09/08
PROTON     10/09/08
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 DEC  202
PREDICTED   30 DEC-01 JAN  190/175/168
90 DAY MEAN        29 DEC  176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 DEC  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC  016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN  025/022-022/018-016/015