FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 362
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5285 (N21W38)
PRODUCED AN M1/0F FLARE WITH SMALL RADIO BURSTS AND A MODERATE
TYPE II SWEEP AT 27/0533Z. AN UNCORRELATED X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED
AT 27/0736Z AND WAS PROBABLY JUST BEHIND THE WEST LIMB AT EITHER
N27 OR S24. OPTICAL REPORTS OF SPRAY, AND A DISAPPEARING AND/OR
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT THOSE LOCATIONS (RESPECTIVELY) COINCIDED
WITH THE X-RAY EVENT. THE MAXIMUM WAS M1 AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEP, AS WELL AS SMALL BURSTS. A CME
WAS ALSO REPORTED FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGION 5292 (S17E05)
SIMPLIFIED TO AN AVERAGE MAGNETIC TYPE AFTER ITS MAJOR FLARE
YESTERDAY JUST BEFORE THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5285 EVOLVED INTO A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC TYPE
AND SUPPORTS A CONTINUING VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAJOR ACTIVITY.
REGION 5297 (S15E35) EMERGED TODAY AS A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL BETA-
GAMMA BUT DOES NOT CONTAIN QUITE AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS EITHER
5292 OR 5285.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE. A BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITION
OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 DEC-30 DEC
CLASS M    70/60/50
CLASS X    15/10/05
PROTON     15/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 DEC  212
PREDICTED   28 DEC-30 DEC  200/190/180
90 DAY MEAN        27 DEC  175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 DEC  024/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 DEC  020/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 DEC-30 DEC  015/015-012/013-010/017