FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 360
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5278 (N27W88)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 25/1115Z. REGION 5290 (N21E22)
EXHIBITED SLOW GROWTH. OTHER PRE-EXISTING DISK REGIONS WERE
STABLE OR DECLINING. THREE NEW SMALL REGIONS EMERGED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE FOR 26 DEC AND DECREASE TO GENERALLY LOW LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 25/0900Z
WHEN MINOR STORMING BEGAN. THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN GRADUALLY
AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE WEST LIMB ON
22-23 DEC.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ACTIVE ON 26 DEC WITH PERIODS AT MINOR
STORM LEVELS. UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR 27 AND 28 DEC.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 DEC-28 DEC
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    10/05/01
PROTON     10/05/01
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 DEC  220
PREDICTED   26 DEC-28 DEC  209/201/192
90 DAY MEAN        25 DEC  174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 DEC  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 DEC  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 DEC-28 DEC  020/025-010/010-010/010