FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 359
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2 OCCURRED AT
24/0207Z AND AN M1 OCCURRED AT 24/1336Z - NEITHER WAS OBSERVED
OPTICALLY. REGION 5292 (S16E45) PRODUCED AN M1/SN AT 24/1658Z.
NEW REGION 5294 (N22W62) EMERGED AS A DISTINCT NEW BIPOLE NEAR
REGIONS 5287 (N18W64) AND 5280 (N24W66).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE. THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL SEE SEVERAL FLARE PRODUCING
REGIONS ROTATE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. OTHER DISK REGIONS APPEAR
CAPABLE OF ONLY ISOLATED CLASS M ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE ON 25 DEC. A MINOR
CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR 26 DEC AND
SHOULD RESULT IN ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ON THAT DATE.
UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 27 DEC.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
CLASS M    60/50/40
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 DEC  229
PREDICTED   25 DEC-27 DEC  219/208/198
90 DAY MEAN        24 DEC  174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 DEC  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  015/020-020/025-010/010