FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 357
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5273 (S32W89)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 22/0625Z AND REGION 5275 (S33W73)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 22/1607Z. A TYPE II BURST WAS OBSERVED
WITH THE M1 FROM REGION 5275. REGION 5278 (N27W47) PRODUCED A
C9/1B AT 22/1108Z. MOST REGIONS ON THE DISK SHOWED SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 5278 REMAINS THE
PRIMARY REGION FOR PRODUCING THAT LEVEL OF FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE ON 23 DEC IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXTREMELY LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB
ON 20 DEC AS OBSERVED BY THE SOLAR MAXIMUM MISSION
CORONAGRAPH. SLIGHTLY ACTIVE LEVELS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 DEC-25 DEC
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 DEC  255
PREDICTED   23 DEC-25 DEC  247/238/229
90 DAY MEAN        22 DEC  173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 DEC  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 DEC  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 DEC-25 DEC  025/025-015/020-015/015