FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 356
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN M1/SF
FLARE IN REGION 5273 (S32W80) AT 21/1557Z.  OTHER DISK REGIONS
PRODUCED ONLY MINOR SUBFLARES.  REGION 5278 (N27W35) HAS
DECLINED IN COMPLEXITY SINCE YESTERDAY.  NEW REGION 5288
(S32W43) IS A RAPIDLY EMERGING BIPOLE.  NEW SMALL SPOTS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB NEAR NE17 BUT HAVE NOT YET BEEN
NUMBERED.  AN ACTIVE REGION IS STILL EXPECTED TO ROTATE ONTO
THE DISK NEAR SE17, THE BELIEVED SOURCE OF YESTERDAY'S M7
X-RAY FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGETIC ACTIVITY FROM THE REGIONS
CURRENTLY ON THE DISK HAS DECLINED.  A NEW ACTIVE REGION, WHICH
MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS, IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW
NEAR SE17 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED .
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 23 DECEMBER DUE TO THE M7 FLARE ON 20 DECEMBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 DEC-24 DEC
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 DEC  252
PREDICTED   22 DEC-24 DEC  252/250/245
90 DAY MEAN        21 DEC  172
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 DEC  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 DEC  013/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 DEC-24 DEC  010/025-025/028-015/030