FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 355
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  AN M7 X-RAY FLARE
OCCURRED AT 20/1244Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TYPE II/IV
RADIO SWEEP AND A 2695 MHZ RADIO BURST OF 690 SFU.  OPTICAL
CORRELATION WAS NOT DEFINITE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT
THE SOUTHEAST LIMB MAY BE THE SOURCE.  REGION 5278 (N27W24)
IS STILL THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK BUT
HAS NOT PRODUCED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  REGIONS 5278, 5280 (N26W10), 5285 (N21E51),
AND THE NEW REGION BEYOND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB (IF IT EXISTS)
MAY PRODUCE ENERGETIC ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 DEC-23 DEC
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     40/40/40
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 DEC  252
PREDICTED   21 DEC-23 DEC  255/260/265
90 DAY MEAN        20 DEC  171
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 DEC  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 DEC  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 DEC-23 DEC  007/030-007/022-015/015