FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 349
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5278 (N25E56)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1B AT 1339Z AND AN M1/SN AT
1741Z. THIS GROUP IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ON THE DISK AT THIS
TIME, COVERING AN AREA OF ABOUT 820 MILLIONTHS AND POSSESSING
A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE LARGE LEADER PENUMBRA.
REGION 5273 (S31E03) ALSO CONTRIBUTED AN M1/SF AT 2039Z, AND
TOGETHER WITH REGION 5275 FORMS A COMPLICATED PAIR OF MATURE
REGIONS. NEW REGION 5280 (N27E74) WAS IDENTIFIED TODAY CLOSE
BEHIND REGION 5278 AS A SEPERATE BIPOLE. SURING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ALL DAY ON THE EAST LIMB AT ABOUT N30, SUGGESTING
THAT YET ANOTHER REGION MAY ROTATE INTO VIEW. A FEW OF THE
OTHER REGIONS WERE OBSERVED TO GROW SOMEWHAT, NOTEABLY REGION
5279 (N21E24), WHICH PRODUCED SOME RESPECTABLE C-CLASS FLARES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE ESSENTIALLY
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5278 IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR M-CLASS OR
GREATER FLARES. REGIONS 5273, 5275, 5280, AND 5279 ARE ALSO
CAPABLE OF RAISING ACTIVITY TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN X-CLASS OR PROTON PRODUCING EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL
ABOUT 1800Z WHEN CONDITIONS BECAME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
THE GREATER THAN 10MEV PROTON FLUXES BEGAN TO SHOW SOME
ENHANCEMENTS BEGINNING AT ABOUT 1330Z BUT DID NOT REACH
EVENT LEVELS. THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF THE ENHANCEMENT
IS THE 13/0218Z M2 FLARE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
CLASS M    85/85/85
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 DEC  215
PREDICTED   15 DEC-17 DEC  218/218/213
90 DAY MEAN        14 DEC  164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 DEC  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  010/012-007/018-005/016