FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 347
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 12 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL, C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C7/1N FROM
REGION 5269 (N31W00) AT 0743Z. NEW REGION 5278 (N26E74) ROTATED
INTO VIEW TODAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE D-TYPE GROUP BUT WAS OBSERVED
TO PRODUCE ONLY STABLE SURGE ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SURGE ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED ON THE WEST LIMB AT N20. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE ESSENTIALLY STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5278 AND ABUTTED REGIONS 5273/5275
ARE CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS OR
GREATER ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 0300-0600Z.
THE INCREASE OF ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. SOME BRIEF ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS MAY OCCUR AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 DEC  180
PREDICTED   13 DEC-15 DEC  180/182/182
90 DAY MEAN        12 DEC  162
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 DEC  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC  012/018-012/015-012/012