FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 341
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 06 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A 28 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT
HAD DISAPPEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE NORTHNORTHWEST FILAMENT, REFERRED TO YESTERDAY, WAS
48 DEGREES LONG AND WAS ALSO COMPLETELY GONE BY VERY EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD (5/2216Z). THE OVERALL BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX HAS
RISEN TO MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT LOW ACTIVITY THRESHOLD (C1.0)
LEVEL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THE RETURNING ACTIVE CARRINGTON SECTOR FROM 010 BACK TO 300
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUPPORTS INCREASING FLARE CHANCES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THE DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS OF VERY
LATE IN THE GMT DAY OF 05 DEC WILL PROBABLY NOT AFFECT US DUE
TO THEIR MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDE LOCATIONS. THE IMPROBABLE
DISTURBANCE ONSET, IF IT DID OCCUR, WOULD PROBABLY START DURING
THE SECOND DAY (8 DEC) AND PEAK EARLY ON THE THIRD DAY (9 DEC).
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY, THIS DISTURBANCE WOULD BE AT STORM LEVELS
IF PORPORTIONAL TO THE MASS OF THE FILAMENTS THAT DISAPPEARED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
CLASS M    30/35/40
CLASS X    05/06/07
PROTON     10/12/14
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 DEC  164
PREDICTED   07 DEC-09 DEC  168/171/175
90 DAY MEAN        06 DEC  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 DEC  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC  010/010-010/012-010/012